Investing in Turbulent Times
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…”
Periods of volatility are not outliers; they are part of the investing cycle.
History shows that markets typically recover within 6–12 months after periods of stress, despite short-term drawdowns. Source: Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026 Markets Letter, Historical Market Data
Markets Are Repricing Risk, Not Reacting
Global markets are currently adjusting to multiple pressures at once:
- Geopolitical conflict
- Persistent inflation
- Slowing growth
- Credit market stress
This type of environment rarely leads to quick recoveries and instead results in extended volatility phases. Source: Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026, Market Review & Summary
The Fed’s Constraint
Monetary policy remains restricted despite slowing growth:
- Inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target
- Rising oil prices add inflationary pressure
- Rate cuts remain uncertain
Source: Federal Reserve Outlook, Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026
Private Credit, Signal vs Noise
Private credit remains a key focus, but requires context:
- The asset class is undergoing cyclical normalization with rising defaults
- Public BDC discounts often signal sentiment, not fundamentals
- Historical data shows private debt returns remain resilient
During prior periods of deep discounts (~-26%), private credit delivered ~12%+ forward returns. Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026
👉 The takeaway, selection, and underwriting matter more than allocation alone
Where Capital Is Moving
Investors are prioritizing defensive, cash-flowing assets
Self-storage continues to stand out:
- $50B+ U.S. industry
- ~92% institutional occupancy
- Short lease durations enable pricing power
- Strong demographic demand drivers
Source: Self Storage Industry Statistics 2026, Panorama Financial Group, Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026
Recent data also suggests:
- ~4–6% annual cash yield
- ~2.0–2.5x MOIC over 5–7 years
Source: Panorama Financial Group Research, Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026
Macro Risk, Energy Matters
One of the most critical risks today is energy supply disruption:
- ~20% of the global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz
- Supply shocks impact inflation, food prices, and global growth
Even strategic reserves would only offset ~3–4 weeks of disruption, highlighting structural fragility. Source: Energy Market Analysis, Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026
Volatility Is Normal
Market corrections are not rare:
- Corrections of -10% to -20% occur every 12–18 months
- Average drawdown ~13.5%
- Average duration ~54 days
Source: S&P 500 Historical Data, Creative Planning, YCharts, Quincy Wells Capital, March 202
Strategic Takeaway
In this environment:
✔ Public markets, elevated uncertainty
✔ Private credit, opportunity with selectivity
✔ Real assets, income, and control
The focus is shifting from maximizing returns to protecting risk-adjusted returns
Closing Insight
The key question investors are asking: Where is my risk-adjusted return most defensible?
Source: Investor Allocation Trends, Quincy Wells Capital, March 2026, Panorama Financial Group
If you’re reviewing portfolio positioning in today’s environment, talk with a specialist about your goals.